When I was writing my PhD thesis on Geographical Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Kano State, I adapted two models with some sorts of modification, that is, the Risk Cells and the Health Field Models. Behold! Using the same models on #Covid19 in Nigeria, I personally made the following conclusions:
1. As the NCDC is busy testing only THREE categories of people in the country at a verily very low capacity, that is:
a) Contacts of confirmed cases;
b) Residents in areas of moderate-high prevalence of #COVID_19; and
c) Recent returnees from abroad,
the virus must be surely spreading among the majority of Nigerian citizens who are obviously very poor and living below poverty line in very high congested ghetto areas across the entire country.
2. Moreover, the level of ignorance, poverty and religious malpractice among the poor Nigerians living in ghetto areas, alongside the very poor healthcare system in the country is among the major reasons that Nigeria is going to experience several thousands of unreported covid-19 cases, both active and closed ones including several deaths.
3. The age distribution of Nigerians is never different from that of the other poor and less developed countries of the world, infact, an estimated more than 90% of Nigerians are below the age 55, thus, a fat number of them is likely to contract the disease with only a mild flu-like symptoms that poverty is surely going to restrict them from seeking healthcare in formal healthcare center.
4. TO BE CONTINUED…